Design in 2020

In July 2010, I had the honour to share my thoughts with the graduating batch at my alma mater, Industrial Design Center, IIT Bombay. I spoke about how the world around us is changing and how it would shape the Design profession (iPad 1 was launched in 2010). This is a transcript of the talk. 

 

Good Afternoon. 

My name is Anshuman and today I am going to spend next half an hour taking a retrospective look at how Human Computer Interaction design has evolved over the last decade (2000-2010) and then risk a guess as to how it would shape in the coming decade (2010-2020). 

My undergrad college had a single email ID for the all the students in the campus and it used to cost 5 rupees to send or receive an email. Not kidding. One had to compose an email on DOS (there was no Notepad) with recipient's email address in the first line on an 8086 PC. Then make a trek to the library with a 5 ½ floppy which had all of ½ MB of storage. Back at IDC, one had to come early to download the pages at the top speed of 1kbps. We used to open 10-12 pages and take a lunch break, and when we come back, hey presto, it was 'Document Done'. Incredibly, my first employer needed a project manager's recommendation on a paper form for an email ID to be created. The internet access was for Group Leaders and above. And, this is a very reputed IT company.  

Before you start guessing my age, it wasn't too far back. I graduated from IDC a little over a decade ago. Internet had just started to find it's feet and look how far have we come.If you have read Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi book titled FLOW. He argues that he says that it takes about 10 years in a field before someone starts being creative or reach a state of 'Flow'. You, the graduating batch, will be at the top of your game by 2020 and I thought it might be useful to hazard a guess how the world will change and what challenges it will be bring with it for the Designer. 

The pace at which the world around has been changing is unseen. If you look at the major shifts in how world has evolved. Here's a statistic that you may find interesting: 

• It is estimated that the sum total of humankind’s knowledge Doubled from 1750-1900. 
• It doubled again from 1900-1950. Again from 1960-65. 
• It has been estimated that the sum total of humankind’s knowledge has doubled at least every five years since then. 
• It has been further projected that by the year 2020, knowledge will double every 73 days. 

That's a staggering statistic and triggers immediate disbelief. Correlate this to some others and it slowly starts looking possible. IDC published a report recently. It said that: 

• YouTube, hosts 100 million video streams a day. 
• Over a billion songs a day are shared over the Internet in MP3 format 2 million emails per second and 1 million IM (and the includes some that you are sending right now) 
• A lot of this is also being generated by Enterprises, Chevron's CIO says his company accumulates data at the rate of 2 terabytes/day. 
• In 2006, the amount of digital information created, captured, and replicated was 161 exabytes (billion gigabytes). This is about 3 million times the information in all the books ever written.
• Between 2006 and 2010, the information added annually to the digital universe will increase more than six fold from 161 exabytes to 988 exabytes. 

So why am I telling you all of this? Just as generation before me and my generation was educated on a staple of Maths and Science to fuel what was primarily Industrial Economies, the next generation will need to master the fundamental of Information Design as Information/Knowledge will become the currency of the economy. But this Information Designer will not be the one as we know it today, it will need a sea change. With the drastic change in the amount of information available to us, these will bring about enormous challenges in the way we: 

1. Create information 
2. Present Information 
3. Find this information 
4. Process (or Ignore) this information 

Let's look in little more detail as to what are the fundamental shifts that are driving these changes. The single largest contributor to this surge has been the Information Technology or better, the Internet. What's driving this surge is also a fundamental shift in how information is created, managed, and shared. If you look at this chart from Customer Driven IT, you will find the following major stages of IT Expansion you will see the four major stages peaking at different times: 

1. System centric: 1970 
2. PC centric: 1990 
3. Network centric: 2005 
4. Customer centric: 2020 

We are currently at the cusp of Network & Customer centricity. So far the IT was driven by disparate set of systems with their own proprietary standards often running on Mainframe computers. Interestingly, worlds most critical operations still run on mainframe computers. Proprietary standards meant that if my train is running late I will most certainly miss my flight. By contrast if I am travelling on a Virgin Atlantic to Delhi and my connecting flight by Jet Airways to Ahmedabad will either be held or I will be re-accommodated. 

This was possible because of standardisation of communication between airlines. Slowly this standardisation is spreading across apparently disparate set of systems. And this is the wave which will last most of next decade i.e. the wave of Information, Content, and Transaction Standards. This in return will mean that systems or for that matter objects that couldn't share information earlier will start 'talking' to each other. And it's already evident in our daily lives. My ability to share my pictures from Flickr on Facebook is one such example. However, this standardisation is currently restricted to web sites and web applications. Restricted to connecting data or a page, to another data or page. Going forward it will soon spread to connect applications to devices or better one concept to another. If you see it's already beginning to happen in pockets. 

• DLNA is becoming a widely adapted standard will allow devices within the home environment to share information with each other Websites that trawl through content to provide structured querying (e.g. www.globrix.com or www.mydeco.com) 
• Websites will communicate to devices and vice-versa (e.g. I can send driving directions from Google Maps to my Car) 

Back in 99, my final ID project was 'Design of Ubiquitous Computer Embedded Workstation for Architects' (aka wishful thinking). It talked about multiple devices that connect with each other, systems that can translate set of 2D images to 3D etc. During the Design Degree Show, visitors asked me about the title, did a double-take, and then ignored it in the same fashion that tourists ignore modern art. My other project, Design of Furniture Systems for Mumbai Suburban Trains made it to the national TV. It tells you that what we wished for in 2000 in coming to reality now. 

Coming back, one development that excites me most about all of this is the fact that devices are increasingly interconnected and communicating. Virtual is becoming Actual. Google has come out with a Phone and Amazon with Kindle. BMW has BMW Assist. Companies that started on Web are finding their way into real world and vice-versa. The world is becoming the web. 

Idea 1:

IDEA #1 that I wish to propose Information landscape is expanding, and information will no longer reside on islands called websites. Information is slowly becoming a continuum where one idea can be linked to another (www.globrix.com) Information is now becoming a 3 Dimensional (or even 4 Dimensional) entity (remember Minority Report, or better watch the latest TED video) Information Architect are now becoming 'True Architects' who can play in 3 and 4 Dimensions. Let me show you two snippets from a program run by the BBC called 'Britain from Above'.

Now imagine the possibility. Inanimate objects like Taxi or Aircraft until now contributed little to a City's Information Architecture. With devices/probes developing a life of their own: 

• Gartner says that by year end 2012, physical sensors will create 20 percent of non-video internet traffic. 
• London 200 traffic cameras send 2 trillion bits/day to command centre. 
• Take a look at these pictures from an MIT Project which analysed the mobile phone conversation Rome to provide a 3rd Dimension to a 2 Dimension Information i.e. a Map. 

It adds a fantastic new dimension that an Information Architect can use to Design Problem Solving. Imagine using this information to provide new information or a completely new perspective to a cities landscape (and by extension it's residents). 

Ability to manipulate the constituent elements will come with deeper understanding of those elements. As Architecture has become specialised, so will Information Architecture. To make information more meaningful will require deeper understanding of the domain you will work in. 

Idea 2

IDEA #2 that I want to leave behind as food for thought: The IA Institute defines IA as: The art and science of organizing and labelling websites, intranets, online communities and software to support usability and findability The focus of IA has primarily been around organisation. I feel that it often assumes Information to be an inanimate entity. Another change that we will see going forward would be as below: Information Architects (like Urban Designers) will need to understand how other users will use it Insert a picture of a trail in a jungle/ urban environment and the evolution of Amazon's product page Given the information overload that only seems to increase, findability will not be enough. We will also need to find ways to make information more context specific. This would need to be done in a manner where the right information presents itself at the right time. This will require using all means available to make information relevant to the context. Contextual relevance will be driven to a large extent by two trends: Personalisation (and implicit acceptance to share personal information) Ability for systems to share this information Development in Artificial Intelligence Google Pizza Screenshot 

Finally, as Designers, the question we should all think about is, is the next generation of Information Architect

• An Interaction Designer whose canvas is opening up the four dimensions, or 
• Is she a Product Designer who help people to find information in things that were inanimate thus far, or 
• Is he an Animator who tells a story with numbers?

You decide. 

But one thing is certain that the future is exciting and it's rapidly unfolding. And when it does you will be at the top of your game. With that, I wish the graduating batch good luck and godspeed. 

Thank you.